First, we exclude the possibility of reducing emissions and, therefore, we imitate the absence of significant emission reduction efforts between 1980 and 2010. The effects on growth, which could be induced by the redeployment of investment resources towards reduction efforts, can therefore be eliminated. The initial DICE-2013 simulation horizon begins in 2010. Instead of forcing the model to accept very small emission reduction efforts between 2010 and 2020, we are making some minor changes to start the simulation horizon from 2020. For most parameters, we will assail their values in 2020 from the initial model as the initial value. However, we expect global temperatures to rise above pre-industrial levels of 1.2oC by 202027. We continue to use the IMF`s global economic outlook GDP forecasts40 by deferring $US 2005 (the base year for all DICE-2013 values). These values, as well as the co2 emissions/production ratio σ by 2020, imply industrial CO2 emissions of 37.52 GtCO2 by 2020. This figure is slightly higher than 36.19 GtCO2, as expected for the RCP4.541 route, but better reflects the recent increase in global emissions42. In order to update cumulative industrial CO2 emissions, we extracted the data observed in the PBL 201742 report and interpolate linearly between the last observation in 2016 and projected emissions in 2020 in order to obtain emissions for 2017-2019. The present value of GDP in 2020 also allows the value of the initial production capital to be adjusted. In accordance with the impact estimate, we calibrate the 5-year DICE-2013 period for an annual phased version with a total duration of 600 years.
As part of the agreement, each country sets out plans and makes its own efforts to curb global warming. There is no mechanism to compel a country to set certain targets, but any objective should go beyond all pre-defined objectives. The only punishment for non-compliance is what is called «name and shame» – or «name and encouragement» — a system in which countries that are no longer compliant are called and encouraged to improve.